Access the programme and papers through this weblink: http://www.minds.org.br/southcentre_minds

Introduction

“Global economic conditions continue to have a strong bearing on production, trade and investment in developing economies (DEs). In this respect the current landscape is not very encouraging. After three years of recovery the world economy still remains highly fragile. The short-term outlook is for contraction in several advanced economies (AEs) in Europe. Growth in others, including the US, is weak and erratic. But more importantly, medium term prospects are bleak almost everywhere.”

“There is considerable uncertainty in global financial markets. While growing public deficits and debt are an ongoing source of economic stress in several major AEs, currently the Achilles Heel of the international economy is the eurozone (EZ). Consequently, the way the EZ crisis is handled is a major concern for DEs.”

“At a first glance, the recent record looks very promising for DEs. During 2003-08, the average growth of DEs exceeded that of advanced economies (AEs) by some 5 percentage points, compared to around one point in the 1980s and 1990s. The difference widened during 2008-11 as most DEs proved resilient to the crisis while AEs collapsed.”

“This growth divergence has widely been interpreted as the South “decoupling” from the North. However, the evidence does not show the desynchronisation of cycles between DEs and AEs, and deviations of economic activity from underlying trends continue to be highly correlated. The more significant question is whether there has been a durable shift in the trend growth of the South relative to the North. A closer look suggests that the growth surge in DEs owes more to exceptionally favourable international economic conditions than improvements in their underlying fundamentals.

” The International Seminar - The State of the World Economy - BNDES June 20 afternoon, aims to discuss the Document “The Staggering Rise of the South”, by the South Centre Chief Economist Yilmaz Akyuz, and the different scenarios for the evolving Global Crisis for the BRICS economies, with special emphasis on Brazil.  

Program

14h00 – 15h20
Transitional Event (UNISOL – UNITRABALHO) – POLÍTICAS INOVADORAS PARA O DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL

• Mesa: Parcerias Comerciais entre Comunidades Agro-extrativistas e Empresas Socialmente Responsáveis
• Presidente da Mesa: Peter Herman May (INCT-PPED, ISEE)
• Sérgio Talocchi (Natura Inovação & Tecnologia, Gerente de Relacionamento com Comunidades). O Caso Natura
• Jorge Rafael Almeida (Coordenador de Operações Sociais da Fundação Orsa, Unidade de Jarí). O Caso Fundação Orsa.
• Debatedores: Cláudia Soares Costa - Chefe do Departamento de Gestão do Fundo Amazônia do BNDES
• Tomas Inhetvin - Coordenador de Desenvolvimento Regional e Economia Local da GIZ - Cooperação Internacional Alemã

15h30 to 16h00
THE STATE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY - Opening and Welcome

• Luiz Eduardo Melin de Carvalho e Silva (BNDES Director)
• Martin Khor (Executive Director, South Centre)
• Rogerio Sobreira (MINDS, General Director) 

16h00 to 16h40
Session 1: State of the World Economy

• Chair: Luiz Eduardo Melin de Carvalho (BNDES Director) 
• Presentation: Yilmaz Akyuz (Chief Economist, South Centre). 

16h40 - 17h40
Commentators  

• Vanessa Petrelli de Correa (President IPEA)
• Rogerio Studart (Executive Director, World Bank)
• Fernando Cardim de Carvalho (Instituto de Economia/UFRJ)

17h40
Coffee Break

17h50 to 19h00
Different Scenarios for the Evolving Global Crisis and the Situation of Brazil

• Chair: Martin Khor (Executive Director, South Centre)
• Discussants: Fernando Pimentel Puga (Chief Economist, BNDES)
• Carlos Frederico Leão Rocha (Director, Institute of Economics Federal University of Rio de Janeiro),
• Renato Boschi (IESP, INCT-PPED Coordinator).

Papers

THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH?– Yılmaz Akyüz

STATEMENT TO THE UN HIGH LEVEL THEMATIC DEBATE ON THE STATE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY – Yılmaz Akyüz

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – Yılmaz Akyüz

DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE EVOLVING GLOBAL CRISIS AND THE SITUATION OF BRAZIL – Fernando Puga

THE BRAZILIAN SCENARIO – Carlos Frederico Leão Rocha

COMMENTS ON “THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH” BY YILMAZ AKYÜZ – Vanessa Petrelli Corrêa

AS PARCERIAS COMERCIAIS ENTRE COMUNIDADES AGROEXTRATIVISTAS E EMPRESAS SOCIALMENTE RESPONSÁVEIS – “ O Projeto: Boas Práticas da Cadeia de Valor da Castanha“ – Jorge Rafael Almeida

POLÍTICAS INOVADORAS PARA O INVESTIMENTO RESPONSÁVEL – Natura Cosmeticos SA – Sergio Talocchil

COMMENTS ON YILMAZ AKYÜR’ PAPER ON “THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH” – Ricardo Bielschowsky, IE-UFRJ