Policy Brief, January 2013

Since at least the early 1990s, countries that sought to regulate the capital account risked self-inflicted stigma in the international investment arena, even in the face of uncontroverted analytical reasons for their appropriateness.Subsequent events, including the Asian financial crisis in 1997, have not eliminated the stigma risk from capital account controls but the analytical discussion has shifted to when, not if, such controls are warranted.

Policy Brief, December 2012

A fundamental question raised by recurrent financial crises in mature and emerging economies is how to ensure that the financial markets and institutions serve growth and development rather than being a constant source of instability and disruption in pursuit of self-interest.

En una sesión muy animada celebrada en el marco del Foro Público de la OMC, embajadores de países en desarrollo y otros expertos expusieron sus opiniones acerca del estancamiento en las negociaciones de la Ronda de Doha de la OMC, la «nueva concepción del comercio» promovida por los principales países desarrollados y la necesidad de plantear una concepción alternativa que refleje la realidad desde la perspectiva de los países en desarrollo.

Policy Brief, October 2012

As seen over and again during recurrent financial crises in both developing and advanced economies (DEs and AEs), including the recent global crisis originating in the US and Europe, financial instability and boom-bust cycles undermine all three ingredients of sustainable development – economic development, social development and environmental protection.

Research Paper 44, March 2012

This paper argues that the unprecedented acceleration of growth in the developing world in the new millennium in comparison with advanced economies is due not so much to improvements in underlying fundamentals as to exceptionally favourable global economic conditions, shaped mainly by unsustainable policies in advanced economies. The only developing economy which has had a major impact on global conditions, notably on commodity prices, is China. However, growth in China has been driven first by a rapid expansion of exports to advanced economies and more recently, after the global crisis, by an investment boom, neither of which is replicable or sustainable over the longer term. To maintain a rapid growth, export-led Asian economies need to reduce their dependence on foreign markets. For Latin American and African commodity exporters, gaining greater autonomy and achieving rapid and stable growth depend on their success in reducing reliance on capital flows and commodity earnings – the two key determinants of their growth which are largely beyond national control.

Los ciclos de auge y colapso de las corrientes de capital y sus efectos en los países en desarrollo

El auge actual de las corrientes de capital hacia los países en desarrollo está teniendo efectos desestabilizadores sobre las monedas, amenaza con crear burbujas de activos y terminará en un colapso perjudicial. Los mercados de los productos básicos son objeto de especulación lo que genera fluctuaciones y volatilidad en los precios de estos productos y hace necesarios tanto los controles de capital en el plano nacional como la reglamentación de las corrientes de capital y de los mercados de los productos básicos a nivel internacional.

 Documento de investigación número 37, marzo de 2011 (Introducción y conclusiones únicamente)

 La historia de la posguerra ha sido testigo recientemente de tres ciclos generalizados de auge y colapso en las corrientes de capital privado hacia las EDE que han infligido grandes reveses al desarrollo.   Una característica común de estos ciclos es que todos comenzaron en situaciones de rápida expansión de la liquidez y bajos tipos de interés en los principales países emisores de monedas de reserva, en especial en los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, los auges terminaron de manera algo diferente en episodios distintos.

This Analytical Note looks at the new dynamic of capital flows from the South to the North arising from unprecedented levels of capital reserve accumulation by the South. It looks at some of the reasons for such capital accumulation – pointing to the perceived need by developing countries to self-insure themselves against financial crises. It then looks at various ways in which financial crises could be prevented by developing countries and concludes by stressing the need for this new dynamic to be reflected in both international economic arrangements and in terms of ensuring that developmental gains by developing countries are obtained.